where are all the bank owned homes in Manatee County?

It was front page news that the number of foreclosures filings here in Manatee County has had 5687 foreclosure filings to date this year, which is an increase from last year. This is a lot of homes and as an active agent it made me wonder where are all the bank owned inventory?
There are 4696 total active residential listings as of this evening (11/22/09). 474 "normal" are pending
There are 149 active bank owned homes 123 pending
There are 920 short sales active there are 940 pending
The Statistics show two big things.
The action is happening on bank owned, and short sale homes. You can clearly see that there is almost the same amount of pending listing vs. active in the short sale/bank owned categories. The conventional sellers have only about 10 to 1 that are pending.
If there are almost 6000 homes that have entered foreclosure WHY is there less than 300 active and pending bank owned properties
Factor in that there are foreclosure filings from prior years that have not been completed. Many foreclosures I am aware had a foreclosure filing well over a year ago and have not gone to auction.
Also, some of foreclosure filings that are also homes that are currently listed as short sales.
Some of the foreclosure filings can also be filed from second position lien holder,s and homeowner associations that have a low probability of actually forcing a sale. These type of filings maybe inflating the numbers somewhat.
So there are under 2000 homes short sale homes, active and under contract. This means that there are around 4000 homeowners that are either attempting a loan modification, or have given up on either a short sale, or some type of work out solution.
I would estimate that if there are 2000 homeowners short selling, than there is at least that many attempting or considering a loan modification.
Activity in Manatee County has significantly increased in the past few months. Prices have continued to drop except in the 200,000 and under market where prices have leveled. Multiple offers are much more common for bank owned homes.
Why is there only 5% of the total inventory bank owned when there is more homes in foreclosure than all active and pending sales on our local MLS?
Two reasons
1. The slow pace of foreclosures is due to the flood of files, and the increasing willingness for lenders to agree to short sales, and loan modifications.
2, Anyone that has a bunch of inventory to sell realizes that if they flood the market it will drive down prices.
I am hopeful that the lien holders will come to realize it is better to keep homeowners that want to stay in their home if at all possible. Less inventory will create price stability.
The question remains when will all those foreclosures will come on the market? I guess it is really in the lien holder's hands.

whether you are buying or selling I am here to help. Serving Sarasota and Manatee Counties for the past 8 years with skill, knowledge, and care. Expert in short sales. If you have questions I have anwers.
Joe Murphy 941-780-3260
www.manateemoves.com
www.activerain.com/manateemoves

Are new home sales pulling market values down?

I have been working with a buyer this week, and after seeing all the resale inventory including short sales, and foreclosures they decided on a new build. What is amazing to me is that the deal they got with the local builder is BETTER than any of the comparable resales in that area.
A resale home that was essentially the same home as they purchased was an option, BUT it was 45,000 dollars more, and a SHORT SALE too. The new construction will take 8 months to close, but a short sale can take 90-180 days to close. Plus the new home has all the features and upgrades that they want.

This perplexed the buyers. The new home Should be More, but in a falling market, I explained, that Bank owned, and new builds pull the market down, since they HAVE to Sell.

A builder is not a builder if he is not building, so, he has to stay competitive in the market. Whether they are making 1% or 20% they have to continue to build or they have to close their doors, and find new work.

Bank owned properties have owners that want to get rid of them asap.

Short sales, and "regular" sales have a major disadvantage since they have to follow the market and are constrained to appraisal issues.

Sales in Manatee County are up 16%. 5 Reasons why.

In September there were 433 homes that were closed compared with August's 361 here in Manatee County, FL.

That is an INCREASE of 16.2% from the prior month!

This is noteworthy because this is supposed to be the SLOW season. No vacationers, no snowbirds, kids are in school, Holidays coming, etc.

I listed 4 new listings in September and all 4 had offers with the month. All but one went pending, but that last one is still in negotiations.

Three offers written in the past month have been in multiple offer situations. It seems that the buyers are realizing that we have hit the "bottom".

You do not need to be an economist to see that the supply of inventory here is going down, and also that sales, contracts are increasing. Except for January and February of this year, there has not been less than 500 homes go pending in a month. Last year the highest month was under 350 units.

5 MAIN REASONS FOR THE RECOVERY IN MANATEE COUNTY, FLORIDA

1. Home owners who can afford their homes and do not need to move are not on the market.


2. Banks REO departments are bringing the REO homes on the market at barely a trickle.


3. The "pent-up demand" from three years of a "bad" FALLING MARKET, has hit a breaking point. At some point those that need to buy, will feel that they can't wait anymore.


4. KILLER DEALS are here. I have sold two homes in the past three weeks that are 50%-25% of their 2005 Prices!


5. Resale homes are priced well below replacement cost. One home that I put under contract for 525,000 had to have almost 700,000 for home owner' coverage. The buyer complained for a minute, but quickly realized this is a very, very GOOD thing.
   

When you are ready to buy or sell- Think of us!

Joe and Molly Murphy www.manateemoves.com
941-780-3260

3 things first time buyers should know to get the 8,000 tax credit

The first time home buyer tax credit will expire on November 30. With Thanksgiving that week it might as well be a week earlier. Typical F.T.H.B. are getting financing through FHA, VA, or USDA. These type of loans will usually take 45 days to close, if there is no major issues with the borrower. So we have a month to find a home, go to contract, and close it to get the cash for the buyer. Here in Manatee county First time home buyers, and their agents are scrambling. I get a few calls a day from buyer agents asking if one of my listings would be able to close in time for the deadline.

My advice for a first time home buyer?

1. Avoid short sales, unless they are "pre-approved"- Short sales can take months to close. You do not have time for that, and betting that you found the "one" short sale that will close in time is a risky bet now. Focus on foreclosures, and regular motivated sellers ( yes, they do exist!).

2. Get your financing in order as much as possible, as early as possible.- If the deal does not close due to financing issues, or worse, is delayed for financing issues. You will be the one losing the benefit of the tax credit. Make sure you have a reputable lender, be realistic with the time frame, and be proactive to make sure they have everything needed to close the deal.

3. START SHOPPING RIGHT NOW! - Did I mention you have about a month to find, and get into contract with your next home? Also, you are not alone. There are plenty of buyers out there trying to do the same thing. The good deals are going FAST.. I wrote an offer for 5k over list price, pre-qualified buyer, quick close, etc. We were beat out. The home had gone into a bidding war. My buyer was maxed out with what he could afford, but we made the offer within 24 hours of the home getting listed.

GOOD THINGS TAKE TIME..... GREAT THINGS HAPPEN ALL AT ONCE!

encouraging news on inventory

Well finally some positive press! The news are always a little behind the curve because they rely on the stats that we create. unfortunatly there is no instant reporting.
In a nut shell here is where we are in Manatee County.

The Good News!

1. Inventory is down, countywide, about 10% from January. In some neighborhoods, for example, Condos in Waterlefe, inventory was this time last year at 35 units, now we are at 17 units!
2. Sales are up a bit with pending deals per month at 300-400 units.
3. Months of Supply. We are down from 24 months of inventory to now 18 months. ( 6 months is considered a "normal" market, whatever normal means!)

The BAD News!

1. Foreclosures are continuing to rise in our area, although we are not the worst market for foreclosures, we have a few thousand homes that are, or will become foreclosed in the near future. These homes will depress the market prices for entry level, and workforce housing. Most of the homes that were bought as "flips" or "investments" really fall into a class that appeals to full time buyers, as opposed to the second home and vacation home buyers. Most of the homes that have been selling so far this year really are to this category of buyer. If a home does not appeal to a Vacationer, then I predict prices will continue to fall as the job market, and economy suffers. Rich people will always be drawn to Florida. We have the beaches, golf, boating, and Disney!
2. With the poor economy, inflation, and the price of gas homes that are on the outskirts of town will suffer more than homes that are closer to amenities. The homes that are located in remote neighborhoods in east, and north county are becoming less desirable because buyers are considering the 20 mile trip to the grocery store as a factor in home buying.

In conclusion, I see that we will have a slight rebound as we bounce on the bottom of the market for luxury/vacation homes. And, homes that are in remote, work-force areas will continue to decline with the increase of distress and foreclosure homes coming on the market.

This is the best time to be a buyer because homes that have great potential are available in numbers we have never seen before. Selection is great, and yes if you buy today there may be a home that comes on for less next month, but chances are it will be a home in poor condition, or have a flaw that keeps a well qualified buyer away.

My philosophy is that Every home is right for every buyer.... At the RIGHT price! Of course, there are going to be bargain hunter stealing homes, but when you look at appreciation potential the homes available today offer some of the best Value and future price appreciation potential.

Remember that when the papers tell you that the market has switched, then we are already in a appreciating market, It is always best to buy while we are depreciating and forget about perfecting the timing. That perfect house will already have been sold!

Two different Markets, at the same time and place?

As I suspected the sales in bradenton where up overall compared to last year, Not as good as the cape coral, fl market that had a 41% increase! But, I was busy, too busy to tend to my blog.
It seems like the market just slowed down much faster than usual. Summer time typically has the buyers that are looking for upgrade, or relocation during the summer recess from school. These buyers are few and far between.
Most of the buyers that I have been dealing with are buying Cash, or if they finance they are overly qualified buyers. It seems that the perception is this is a time to pick up that bargain in Florida.
As I see it there is the Second home/Investor buyer, and the Workforce buyer. It is amazing how we can have two different scenarios playing at the same time! The people with plenty of cash are scooping up bargains, while the "workforce" deals with foreclosures, and short sales.
Actually there has been signs that the luxury second home market is having a rebound in bradenton. There was a record sale in Waterlefe last month. 1.3 million for a 3200 sqft home, while two slightly smaller less lavish homes sold for less than half that price.

Real estate appraisal Nightmares

One of the biggest issues that is brewing is conflicts over home values. This week I am dealing with a home that was sold for over one million, appraised for 975,000. The seller reduced to the appraisal.
Then the lenders said that the appraisal was wrong and that the home was only worth 800,000. And that would be their basis for the loan.
This home was without comparable sales to back up the price. But, it is my opinion that a home is worth what a buyer will pay for it. Period.
With the swelling of forclosures and bank sales in Manatee County there will be lots of LOW sales that will pull down market values unfairly for other homes that are not in a distress situation.
The lenders need to lighten up a bit.